Tuesday, December 04, 2007


The Sunday venezuelan referendum has many clues about Chavez defeat ands over the new political scenary for the next years.First many people thinks that was a bad choice make the option to change some articles of constitution in a country with the population with domestic problems to obtain some basic foods.In the last election Chavez won with 7 million of ballotage,Monday only obtain 4 million of votes.The diferences are not voters to oposition were no voters or abtention.Second factor Isaias Baduel a general very close to Chavez and former Defense Ministry.Baduel resign on July and after not agree with Chavez option to change the Constitution,both are army members and this is a very important issue in a government based in army stability a disence some armies groups are always a posibility in venezuelan politics.The Chavez incursion in politics was based in a former past as a young army oficial interested in publics affairs.The third element are universities student,is posible a elite group but for example Yon Goicoechea a 25 laws student surge after No wining as a natural leadership concerned about Venezuela social situation.His discourse moderate is a wise sign about a very pragmatic vision that Chavez is still a popular leader with 5o% of preferences and that if democracy work in five years more a opossite coalition with other program could repeat the Monday results.

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